Correction: FSP Movers Are 26% of Net NH Migrants, Not 15%

Free State ProjectAccording to Free State Project founder Jason Sorens, the database available on the FSP website does not actually catalog when movers moved, despite using the term “mover” in the database. The date shown there for each mover is apparently their date of signing the FSP’s Statement of Intent. So despite us double-checking the numbers, this confusion resulted in an inaccurate article I posted earlier today. Here is a correction to that article.

In the original article here, I corrected (or so I thought) the incorrect (and subsequently withdrawn) article that was originally posted by the FSP that used bad numbers to determine that FSP movers numbered 36% of domestic migrants from Jul 2013 – Jul 2014. Using the numbers provided to me by Darryl W. Perry, we determined that, using a larger timeframe of Apr 2010 – Jul 2014, the actual percentage of all migrants (including international) was 15%. However, due to bad input data it turns out that the actual number is over 26%!

Here’s how I determined that FSP movers amount to 26% of the net migrants into NH from Apr 2010 – Jul 2014. First, I kept the same number of net migrants from the census data, which is 3,013. Then, using data from Archive.org from April 2010 and July 2014, I determined that according to the numbers presented on the front page of FreeStateProject.org on those dates, that 810 people moved to New Hampshire in that timeframe. 810/3013 = 26.88%!

That’s an impressive percentage, especially if you consider that the FSP’s official move has not yet been triggered. When that happens (at 20,000 FSP signers), thousands more liberty-oriented activist movers will be on-the-way.

Here’s the now-retracted article:

Recently, the Free State Project released some very exciting news on their website. They claimed that movers-to-NH for the FSP were 36% of the total domestic migrants into New Hampshire for Jul 2013 – Jul 2014. Unfortunately, that claim turned out to be false. Someone there at the FSP had used some incorrect numbers from the FSP movers database, claiming that 405 people had moved to NH for the FSP in that timeframe. Considering that the FSP’s total number of movers over more than a decade (from their site) is 1,436, that 405-in-a-year claim sounded too good to be true.

Thanks to Darryl W. Perry for crunching the numbers to get the real data. The actual number of domestic FSP movers during that timeframe is 108, not 405. The FSP cited census data of 1,117 domestic migrants during the Jul 2013 – Jul 2014 timeframe. That’s 9.66% of domestic migrants for the FSP, not 36.25%, as they’d originally cited. Hopefully, the FSP will issue a correction and apology for their huge mistake.

You may be asking how, if the proper number is 9.66%, did I get the 15% number cited in the headline? It’s more instructive to look at a wider view of time. Looking at the same census datasheet the FSP used, the number of total migration to New Hampshire, including international migrants (which the FSP ignored), over a four year timespan covering April 2010 through July 2014, totals a net increase of 3,013 migrants. According to the FSP’s database, the total number of movers for the FSP during that timeframe is 481. That’s 15.96% of the total migration to NH over the most recent four years for which census data is available. That’s still an impressive chunk, especially if you consider that the FSP’s official move has not yet been triggered. When that happens (at 20,000 FSP signers), thousands more liberty-oriented activist movers will be on-the-way.

Here is the original press release from the FSP that contained the inaccurate claims:

Mass Migration Project Now the Largest Constituency of New Movers to Small Northeastern State
Manchester, NH – February 24th, 2015 – The Free State Project announced that it is now responsible for nearly 40% of New Hampshire’s net in-migration from other US states. As reported Saturday in the New Hampshire Union-Leader, based on the latest Census Bureau data, New Hampshire has seen a rebound of migration from other US states to approximately 1,117 people from July 1st, 2013 to July 1st, 2014. During that same period, the Free State Project confirmed that 405 of its participants had officially “made the move” to New Hampshire. In short, the Free State Project is responsible for over one-third of interstate migration into New Hampshire over the Census Bureau’s reporting period.

The Free State Project (FSP) is a 501(c)3 non-profit with the goal of attracting 20,000 pro-liberty individuals to move to New Hampshire. Currently more than 17,000 people have signed the FSP’s Statement of Intent to move, and 10% of those signers have already relocated to the Granite State. The FSP is on-track to draw an additional 18,000 participants into the state by 2023.

FSP President Carla Gericke moved to New Hampshire from New York City in 2008 with her husband. She cites New Hampshire’s low-tax environment, high quality of life, live-and-let-live attitude, and accessible state government as the primary reasons that people relocate within the FSP or on their own. Known as the “New Hampshire Advantage,” these policies have allowed the state to rank among the best to raise a family, start a business, live affordably, and get involved in local politics.

“FSP movers have already purchased approximately $30-40 million in New Hampshire real estate. They come from every walk of life, including entrepreneurs, nurses, engineers, lawyers, teachers, small-business owners, farmers, and more. Both established families and fresh college graduates are choosing New Hampshire as our home over any other state or country,” said Gericke. She added: “New Hampshire is an oasis of fiscal responsibility and tolerance for diversity in a world where the national news always seems to get more negative. We love it here, and we’re proud to be attracting new residents that want to reinforce the values that make New Hampshire so desirable.”

About the Free State Project: The Free State Project is an effort to recruit 20,000 pro-liberty individuals to New Hampshire, where they will exert the fullest practical effort toward the creation of a society in which the maximum role of the government is the protection of individuals’ rights to life, liberty, and property. https://www.freestateproject.org/about
Contact: Mike Finger Media Liaison 917-719-6333

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